Vitoria Setubal vs FC Serpa: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC Serpa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria Setubal vs FC Serpa?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Vitoria Setubal (1,880) and FC Serpa (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria Setubal have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; FC Serpa have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Amarante(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Lusitânia(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 25, 2024 | Moncarapachense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(home) | 4-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Oriental Lisboa(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Juventude Évora(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Vitoria Setubal win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 FC Serpa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa 4-2 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Vitoria Setubal 3-2 FC Serpa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 17, 2023 | FC Serpa 0-1 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
Last archived meeting: FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FC Serpa score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Serpa | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Serpa | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 27 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria Setubal vs FC Serpa?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC Serpa.
- Where and when is Vitoria Setubal vs FC Serpa played?
- Vitoria Setubal vs FC Serpa is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Bonfim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.