Lazio vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes Lazio the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lazio vs Genoa?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Lazio (2,118) and Genoa (2,035).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lazio have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Genoa have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Lazio win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Genoa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Lazio 3-2 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Genoa 0-3 Lazio | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Genoa 0-2 Lazio | Serie A |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Lazio 3-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Genoa 0-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Lazio 1-0 Genoa | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
Lazio score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Genoa | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lazio sit 9th in Serie A (54 points from 38 matches) and Genoa sit 16th (41 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 40 | 54 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 51 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Genoa?
- The Footlab model makes Lazio the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Lazio vs Genoa played?
- Lazio vs Genoa is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.