Le Puy Foot vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Charles Massot, Espaly-Saint-Marcel
The Footlab model makes Le Puy Foot the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Caen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Puy Foot vs Caen?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Le Puy Foot (1,870) and Caen (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Puy Foot have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Caen have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Versailles(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bastia(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Montpellier(away) | 2-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Dijon(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Le Puy Foot win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Caen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Le Puy Foot 1-0 Caen | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Caen 2-0 Le Puy Foot | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Puy Foot score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Puy Foot | 1.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Puy Foot sit 6th in Ligue 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Caen sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Puy Foot vs Caen?
- The Footlab model makes Le Puy Foot the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Caen.
- Where and when is Le Puy Foot vs Caen played?
- Le Puy Foot vs Caen is played on October 31, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Charles Massot, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.