Lexington vs FC Tulsa: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Lexington SC Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for FC Tulsa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Lexington (1,765) and FC Tulsa (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lexington have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; FC Tulsa have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 5-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | New Mexico United(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Detroit City(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Lexington win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FC Tulsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Tulsa 0-0 Lexington | USL Championship |
| Oct 5, 2025 | FC Tulsa 3-0 Lexington | USL Championship |
| May 18, 2025 | Lexington 0-2 FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: FC Tulsa vs Lexington on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tulsa score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| FC Tulsa | 1.1 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lexington sit 8th in USL Championship (15 points from 12 matches) and FC Tulsa sit 3rd (19 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Tulsa | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Lexington | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | Lexington | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
- The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for FC Tulsa.
- Where and when is Lexington vs FC Tulsa played?
- Lexington vs FC Tulsa is played on October 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Lexington SC Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots