Match

Libertad vs Emelec: prediction and stats

Liga ProPlacement Group - 6Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja

LibertadEmelec

The Footlab AI model makes Libertad the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Emelec. The most likely score is 1-1. If Libertad wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?

A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Libertad (1,773) and Emelec (1,693).

46%27%27%
Libertad winDrawEmelec win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Libertad vs Emelec

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Libertad

5-4-1
  1. 33A. Chére
  1. 70Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
  2. 80X. Pineda
  3. 10G. Cortéz
  4. 30J. Bravo
  1. 17E. Patta
  2. 19O. Quiñónez
  3. 20J. Rodríguez
  4. 6B. Caicedo
  5. 2R. Morinigo
  1. 12D. Cabezas

Emelec

4-2-3-1
  1. 9R. Carrillo
  1. 19J. Ruíz
  2. 5A. Mina
  3. 59Reixon Saya
  4. 32J. Valverde
  5. 21J. Cevallos
  1. 27F. León
  2. 80O. Herrera
  3. 2A. Leguizamón
  4. 30Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra
  1. 12P. Ortíz

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:59 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertad have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Emelec have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Libertad
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Guayaquil City FC(away)0-0Liga Pro
Oct 25, 2026Leones del Norte(away)1-4Liga Pro
Oct 17, 2026Guayaquil City FC(home)4-0Liga Pro
Oct 9, 2026Leones del Norte(home)3-0Liga Pro
Sep 20, 2026Emelec(away)2-1Liga Pro
Emelec
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Leones del Norte(home)0-2Liga Pro
Oct 25, 2026Guayaquil City FC(home)0-1Liga Pro
Oct 18, 2026Leones del Norte(away)3-1Liga Pro
Oct 10, 2026Guayaquil City FC(away)2-3Liga Pro
Sep 20, 2026Libertad(home)1-2Liga Pro

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Libertad wins, 3 draws, 1 Emelec win.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Emelec 1-2 LibertadLiga Pro
Sep 4, 2026Libertad 1-1 EmelecLiga Pro
May 10, 2026Emelec 1-1 LibertadLiga Pro
Aug 3, 2025Libertad 1-2 EmelecLiga Pro
Apr 12, 2025Emelec 1-1 LibertadLiga Pro
Nov 30, 2024Libertad 2-1 EmelecLiga Pro

Last archived meeting: Emelec vs Libertad on Sep 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Libertad score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Emelec score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Libertad1.70.986/158/15
Emelec0.91.328/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Libertad sit 7th in Liga Pro (51 points from 35 matches) and Emelec sit 10th (42 points from 35 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Libertad3514912433951
10Emelec3511915314342

A question about Libertad vs Emelec?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Libertad vs Emelec?
The Footlab AI model makes Libertad the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Emelec.
Where and when is Libertad vs Emelec played?
Libertad vs Emelec is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, in the Liga Pro.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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