Lille vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab AI model makes Lille the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lille wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Lyon?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Lille (2,121) and Lyon (2,149).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lille vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lille
4-2-3-1- 18A. Ueda
- 6N. Bentaleb
- 17N. Mukau
- 7D. Bakwa
- 10H. Haraldsson
- 21B. André
- 4Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 15R. Perraud
- 22Tiago Santos
- 3N. Ngoy
- 1B. Özer
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Lyon have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lille wins, 1 draw, 5 Lyon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Lyon 1-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Lille 1-2 Lyon | Coupe de France |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Lille 0-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Lyon 2-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Lille 1-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 6, 2024 | Lille 3-4 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Lyon | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 2nd in Ligue 1 (13 points from 6 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
A question about Lille vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lille the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Lille vs Lyon played?
- Lille vs Lyon is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.