Lithuania vs Liechtenstein: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas, Marijampolė
The Footlab AI model makes Lithuania the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Liechtenstein. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?
Lithuania starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (1,279 vs 1,076).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lithuania vs Liechtenstein
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lithuania
3-4-3- 10A. Kučys
- 14V. Slivka
- 7A. Dolžnikov
- 6M. Vorobjovas
- 13J. Lasickas
- 15G. Gineitis
- 21A. Lickūnas
- 3E. Utkus
- 18V. Armalas
- 20R. Lekiatas
- 12T. Švedkauskas
Liechtenstein
5-3-2- 7Fabio Luque Notaro
- 11A. Lo Russo
- 20A. Hasler
- 8A. Sele
- 10M. Buchel
- 3M. Goppel
- 23J. Hofer
- 5J. Weissenhofer
- 4L. Traber
- 18N. Hasler
- 1B. Büchel
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lithuania have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Liechtenstein have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Malta(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cyprus(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Lithuania win, 0 draws, 0 Liechtenstein wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein 0-2 Lithuania | UEFA Nations League |
Last archived meeting: Liechtenstein vs Lithuania on Sep 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lithuania score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Liechtenstein score 0.2 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Liechtenstein | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2 | 2/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lithuania sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (4 points from 3 matches) and Liechtenstein sit 3rd (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
A question about Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lithuania the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Liechtenstein.
- Where and when is Lithuania vs Liechtenstein played?
- Lithuania vs Liechtenstein is played on November 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.