Gibraltar vs Malta: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Europa Point Stadium, Gibraltar
The Footlab AI model makes Malta the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gibraltar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malta wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gibraltar vs Malta?
Malta starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,290 vs 1,169).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gibraltar vs Malta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gibraltar
4-3-3- 10T. De Barr
- 4N. Pozo
- 9D. Borge
- 8K. Ronan
- 11J. Scanlon
- 5D. Bent
- 6B. Lopes
- 2E. Jolley
- 15P. McClafferty
- 3J. Valarino
- 23J. Hankins
Malta
4-2-3-1- 11I. Cardona
- 20I. Chouaref
- 10T. Teuma
- 7J. Mbong
- 23A. Satariano
- 6B. Paiber
- 5K. Shaw
- 13E. Pepe
- 3R. Camenzuli
- 21J. Corbalan
- 1H. Bonello
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gibraltar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Malta have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Liechtenstein(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Malta(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cayman Islands(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Gibraltar(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Liechtenstein(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Andorra(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Gibraltar wins, 1 draw, 2 Malta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Malta 1-1 Gibraltar | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Malta 1-0 Gibraltar | Friendlies |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Malta 2-0 Gibraltar | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Gibraltar score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Malta score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibraltar | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Malta | 1.1 | 2.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gibraltar sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (2 points from 2 matches) and Malta sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
A question about Gibraltar vs Malta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gibraltar vs Malta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malta the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gibraltar.
- Where and when is Gibraltar vs Malta played?
- Gibraltar vs Malta is played on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Europa Point Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.