Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 24Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Lokomotivi Tbilisi the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Merani Tbilisi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,370 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotivi Tbilisi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Merani Tbilisi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gonio(home) | 4-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Saburtalo II(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Basa(away) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iveria Khashuri(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lokomotivi Tbilisi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Merani Tbilisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi 1-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5-0 Merani Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Merani Tbilisi 0-2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5-2 Merani Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 25, 2023 | Merani Tbilisi 3-2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Merani Tbilisi 2-5 Lokomotivi Tbilisi | David Kipiani Cup |
Last archived meeting: Merani Tbilisi vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi sit 10th in Liga 3 (23 points from 18 matches) and Merani Tbilisi sit 8th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotivi Tbilisi the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Merani Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi played?
- Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi is played on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.