Guria vs Varketili: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 24Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze, Lanchkhuti
The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Varketili. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guria vs Varketili?
Varketili starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,488 vs 1,375).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guria have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Varketili have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Saburtalo II(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi(away) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iberia 2010(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Kolkheti Khobi(home) | 4-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Margveti 2006(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Aragvelebi(away) | 4-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Guria win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Varketili win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Varketili 1-1 Guria | Liga 3 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Guria 0-2 Varketili | Liga 3 |
| May 9, 2024 | Varketili 4-0 Guria | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guria score 2.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Varketili score 2.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guria | 2.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Varketili | 2.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guria sit 2nd in Liga 3 (39 points from 18 matches) and Varketili sit 1st (44 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varketili | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 44 |
| 2 | Guria | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 11 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guria vs Varketili?
- The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Varketili.
- Where and when is Guria vs Varketili played?
- Guria vs Varketili is played on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.