Longford Town vs Treaty United: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Bishopsgate Stadium, Longford Town
The Footlab model makes Longford Town the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Treaty United. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Longford Town vs Treaty United?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Longford Town (1,388) and Treaty United (1,313).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Longford Town have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Treaty United have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 4-2 | First Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Athlone Town(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Finn Harps(home) | 5-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Treaty United(away) | 1-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Longford Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Treaty United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Treaty United 0-1 Longford Town | First Division |
| May 29, 2026 | Longford Town 3-1 Treaty United | First Division |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Treaty United 0-0 Longford Town | First Division |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Treaty United 1-2 Longford Town | First Division |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Longford Town 2-0 Treaty United | First Division |
| May 23, 2025 | Treaty United 5-1 Longford Town | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Treaty United vs Longford Town on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Longford Town score 2.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Treaty United score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford Town | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Treaty United | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Longford Town sit 6th in First Division (25 points from 20 matches) and Treaty United sit 10th (16 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Longford Town | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 6 | Longford Town | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 30 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Longford Town vs Treaty United?
- The Footlab model makes Longford Town the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Treaty United.
- Where and when is Longford Town vs Treaty United played?
- Longford Town vs Treaty United is played on September 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Bishopsgate Stadium, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.