Kerry vs Bray Wanderers: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Bray Wanderers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kerry vs Bray Wanderers?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Kerry (1,430) and Bray Wanderers (1,402).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kerry have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Bray Wanderers have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 2-4 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 1-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Finn Harps(home) | 5-0 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Wexford(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 0-4 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kerry win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Bray Wanderers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers 0-4 Kerry | First Division |
| May 22, 2026 | Kerry 2-2 Bray Wanderers | First Division |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Bray Wanderers 2-1 Kerry | First Division |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Bray Wanderers 5-1 Kerry | First Division |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Kerry 2-1 Bray Wanderers | First Division |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Bray Wanderers 4-2 Kerry | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Bray Wanderers vs Kerry on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bray Wanderers score 2.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Bray Wanderers | 2.4 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kerry sit 8th in First Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Bray Wanderers sit 3rd (31 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 41 | 43 |
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kerry vs Bray Wanderers?
- The Footlab model makes Kerry the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Bray Wanderers.
- Where and when is Kerry vs Bray Wanderers played?
- Kerry vs Bray Wanderers is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC), in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.