Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco, Lorca
The Footlab AI model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Lorca Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ucam Murcia wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Lorca Deportiva (1,868) and Ucam Murcia (1,950).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lorca Deportiva
4-3-3- 10Dani Albiar
- 19G. Lopez
- 17José Naranjo
- 8Á. Martinez Nicolas
- 24J. Acevedo
- 21A. Heredia
- 12Jaime Escobar
- 18Fran Tafalla
- 15Fromsa
- 5H. Galiano
- 13F. Arbol
Ucam Murcia
4-3-3- 11Dani Aquino
- 7Alvarito
- 18J. Pontones
- 19Juanma Bravo
- 8U. Urzelay
- 20Alberto Soto
- 6O. Jaiteh
- 2J. Ruiz
- 4Ramirez Javi
- 23M. Sevila
- 1F. Ackermann
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 06:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lorca Deportiva have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Ucam Murcia have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Poblense(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Nucía(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Castellón II(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Mallorca II(home) | 5-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cieza(home) | 2-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Alcoyano(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Elche II(away) | 5-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Lorca Deportiva win, 0 draws, 3 Ucam Murcia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Lorca Deportiva 2-0 Ucam Murcia | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Ucam Murcia 2-1 Lorca Deportiva | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 20, 2021 | Lorca Deportiva 1-2 Ucam Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 29, 2020 | Ucam Murcia 1-0 Lorca Deportiva | Primera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lorca Deportiva score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ucam Murcia score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorca Deportiva | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Ucam Murcia | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lorca Deportiva sit 7th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (12 points from 9 matches) and Ucam Murcia sit 1st (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Lorca Deportiva | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
A question about Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ucam Murcia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Lorca Deportiva.
- Where and when is Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia played?
- Lorca Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.