Louisville City vs Detroit City: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Detroit City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Louisville City vs Detroit City?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Louisville City (1,855) and Detroit City (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Louisville City have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Detroit City have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 4-5 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Miami FC(away) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Louisville City win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Detroit City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Detroit City 0-0 Louisville City | USL League One Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Detroit City 2-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Louisville City 0-1 Detroit City | USL Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Detroit City 0-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Louisville City 2-0 Detroit City | USL Championship |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Detroit City 2-1 Louisville City | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Detroit City vs Louisville City on Jun 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Louisville City score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Detroit City score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Detroit City | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Louisville City sit 3rd in USL Championship (21 points from 14 matches) and Detroit City sit 2nd (21 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Detroit City | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 35 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Louisville City vs Detroit City?
- The Footlab model makes Louisville City the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Detroit City.
- Where and when is Louisville City vs Detroit City played?
- Louisville City vs Detroit City is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lynn Family Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots