Lucksta vs IFK Luleå: prediction and stats
Division 2 - NorrlandNorrland - Promotion RoundKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Sörforsvallen, Sundsvall
The Footlab model makes IFK Luleå the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Lucksta. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lucksta vs IFK Luleå?
IFK Luleå starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,530 vs 1,369).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lucksta have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; IFK Luleå have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Täfteå(away) | 1-4 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 16, 2026 | IFK Östersund(away) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kubikenborg(home) | 1-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Skellefteå(away) | 0-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Boden(home) | 3-0 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kubikenborg(home) | 1-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Skellefteå(away) | 1-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Boden(home) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gottne(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 1, 2026 | IFK Östersund(home) | 4-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Lucksta win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 IFK Luleå win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2024 | IFK Luleå 1-0 Lucksta | Division 2 - Norrland |
| May 18, 2024 | Lucksta 4-0 IFK Luleå | Division 2 - Norrland |
How many goals should we expect?
Lucksta score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; IFK Luleå score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucksta | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| IFK Luleå | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lucksta sit 3rd in Division 2 - Norrland (18 points from 12 matches) and IFK Luleå sit 3rd (25 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lucksta vs IFK Luleå?
- The Footlab model makes IFK Luleå the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Lucksta.
- Where and when is Lucksta vs IFK Luleå played?
- Lucksta vs IFK Luleå is played on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Sörforsvallen, in the Division 2 - Norrland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.