Lugano II vs Bavois: prediction and stats
1. Liga PromotionRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Centro sportivo Cornaredo B2, Lugano
The Footlab model makes Bavois the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Lugano II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugano II vs Bavois?
Bavois starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,682 vs 1,567).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugano II have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Bavois have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luzern II(home) | 4-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Young Boys II(away) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bulle(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 30, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 23, 2026 | Lausanne Sport II(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brühl(home) | 0-0 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 19, 2026 | YF Juventus(away) | 0-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Servette FC(home) | 0-7 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Zürich II(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bellinzona(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga Promotion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lugano II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bavois win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Bavois 4-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Lugano II 1-1 Bavois | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Lugano II 0-0 Bavois | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bavois 3-4 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Bavois 3-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Lugano II 2-1 Bavois | 1. Liga Promotion |
How many goals should we expect?
Lugano II score 1.3 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bavois score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Bavois | 1.9 | 1.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugano II sit 14th in 1. Liga Promotion (3 points from 3 matches) and Bavois sit 10th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bavois | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Lugano II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugano II vs Bavois?
- The Footlab model makes Bavois the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Lugano II.
- Where and when is Lugano II vs Bavois played?
- Lugano II vs Bavois is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Centro sportivo Cornaredo B2, in the 1. Liga Promotion.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.