Luton vs Leicester: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire
The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Leicester. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luton vs Leicester?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luton have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Leicester have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Notts County(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Luton win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Leicester win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2019 | Luton 0-4 Leicester | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leicester score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Leicester | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luton sit 3rd in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and Leicester sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Leicester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luton vs Leicester?
- The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Leicester.
- Where and when is Luton vs Leicester played?
- Luton vs Leicester is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Kenilworth Road, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.