Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeaguePlayoff roundKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bloomfield Stadium, Tel-Aviv
The Footlab model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for FC Lugano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Maccabi Tel Aviv (2,088) and FC Lugano (2,020).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maccabi Tel Aviv have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; FC Lugano have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Lugano(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maccabi Netanya(away) | 1-0 | Toto Cup Ligat Al |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sheriff Tiraspol(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vedeggio(away) | 10-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Maccabi Tel Aviv win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 FC Lugano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Last archived meeting: FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maccabi Tel Aviv score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FC Lugano score 3.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| FC Lugano | 3.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Lugano | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano?
- The Footlab model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for FC Lugano.
- Where and when is Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano played?
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano is played on August 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bloomfield Stadium, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.