Machico vs Florgrade: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Machico, Machico (Madeira)
The Footlab AI model makes Machico the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Florgrade. The most likely score is 1-1. If Machico wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machico vs Florgrade?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Machico (1,909) and Florgrade (1,944).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Machico vs Florgrade
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Machico
Not enough data to predict the Machico lineup.
Florgrade
Not enough data to predict the Florgrade lineup.
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machico have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Florgrade have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guarda(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Machico score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Florgrade score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machico | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Florgrade | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machico sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (8 points from 4 matches) and Florgrade sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Florgrade | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
A question about Machico vs Florgrade?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machico vs Florgrade?
- The Footlab AI model makes Machico the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Florgrade.
- Where and when is Machico vs Florgrade played?
- Machico vs Florgrade is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Machico, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.