Manchego vs Toledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Juan Carlos I, Ciudad Real
The Footlab AI model makes Manchego the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Toledo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchego wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchego vs Toledo?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Manchego (1,800) and Toledo (1,848).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchego vs Toledo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchego
Not enough data to predict the Manchego lineup.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchego have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Toledo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Almansa(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villacañas(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Villacañas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchego wins, 3 draws, 1 Toledo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Toledo 1-0 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Manchego 1-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Toledo 0-0 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Manchego 1-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Toledo 1-1 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Manchego 2-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Manchego score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchego | 1.1 | 0.7 | 10 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchego sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (15 points from 6 matches) and Toledo sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Toledo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Manchego vs Toledo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchego vs Toledo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchego the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Toledo.
- Where and when is Manchego vs Toledo played?
- Manchego vs Toledo is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.