Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve: prediction and stats
Friendlies ClubsClub FriendliesKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Campo Deportivo La Solana, Marchamalo
The Footlab model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Marchamalo (1,705) and Unión Adarve (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marchamalo have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Unión Adarve have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Azuqueca(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Racing Madrid(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 3, 2026 | Las Rozas(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Galapagar(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villaverde-Boetticher(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | A Madrid III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Unión Adarve score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marchamalo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Unión Adarve | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve?
- The Footlab model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve played?
- Marchamalo vs Unión Adarve is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Campo Deportivo La Solana, in the Friendlies Clubs.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.