Match

Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense: prediction and stats

Copa Santa CatarinaSemi-finalsKick-off on November 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina

Marcílio DiasFigueirense

The Footlab AI model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Figueirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marcílio Dias wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Marcílio Dias (1,640) and Figueirense (1,645).

37%27%36%
Marcílio Dias winDrawFigueirense win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Marcílio Dias

4-3-3
  1. 10Cesinha
  2. 9Lucas Batatinha
  3. 17Jose Carlos
  1. 8Felipe Baiano
  2. 15Guilherme Kante
  3. 7Roldan
  1. 2Victor Guilherme
  2. 4Luan
  3. 5Reginaldo
  4. 6Jonathan
  1. 1Matheus Cavichioli

Figueirense

4-3-3
  1. 99Émerson Galego
  2. 70Igor Bolt
  3. 17Mailson
  1. 8Dudu
  2. 22Vitor Ricardo
  3. 14Breno
  1. 6Arthur Henrique
  2. 7Raynan
  3. 3Leonan Santos
  4. 37Lucas Dias
  1. 12Fabrício

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 05:14 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marcílio Dias have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Figueirense have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marcílio Dias
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Barra(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 16, 2026Figueirense(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 9, 2026Nação(away)0-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 26, 2026Blumenau(away)1-1Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 19, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)4-2Copa Santa Catarina
Figueirense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Blumenau(away)2-3Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 24, 2026Joinville(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 16, 2026Marcílio Dias(away)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 10, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 27, 2026Metropolitano(away)1-0Copa Santa Catarina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marcílio Dias wins, 1 draw, 2 Figueirense wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Marcílio Dias 2-2 FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina
Feb 20, 2026Figueirense 0-1 Marcílio DiasCatarinense - 1
Feb 13, 2026Marcílio Dias 1-0 FigueirenseCatarinense - 1
Jan 10, 2026Figueirense 1-0 Marcílio DiasCatarinense - 1
Nov 9, 2025Marcílio Dias 2-1 FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina
Nov 2, 2025Figueirense 3-0 Marcílio DiasCopa Santa Catarina

Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense on Oct 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Marcílio Dias score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Figueirense score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Marcílio Dias1.91.3311/159/15
Figueirense1.30.978/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?
The Footlab AI model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Figueirense.
Where and when is Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense played?
Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense is played on November 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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