Joinville vs Hercílio Luz: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaSemi-finalsKick-off on November 7, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Arena Joinville, Joinville, Santa Catarina
The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Joinville. The most likely score is 1-1. If Hercílio Luz wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Hercílio Luz starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,635 vs 1,523).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Joinville
4-2-3-1- 7Iago Dias
- 10Gabriel Terra
- 8Para
- 9Keké
- 5Yalle
- 11João Victor
- 6Natanael
- 2Toty
- 3Vitao
- 4Gutieri
- 1Thiago
Hercílio Luz
Not enough data to predict the Hercílio Luz lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 04:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Joinville have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Hercílio Luz have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 3-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 3-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Barra(home) | 2-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nação(away) | 4-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 3-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Blumenau(home) | 0-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Barra(home) | 2-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Nação(home) | 2-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Joinville wins, 1 draw, 5 Hercílio Luz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Joinville 1-3 Hercílio Luz | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Hercílio Luz 2-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Joinville 1-2 Hercílio Luz | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 1-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 1-0 Joinville | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 1-0 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Joinville vs Hercílio Luz on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Joinville score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hercílio Luz score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joinville | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Hercílio Luz | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Joinville.
- Where and when is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz played?
- Joinville vs Hercílio Luz is played on November 7, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Joinville, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.