Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Hercílio Luz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Marcílio Dias (1,791) and Hercílio Luz (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marcílio Dias have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Hercílio Luz have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 2-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 2-2 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Independiente FSJ(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Azuriz(home) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 24, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nação(away) | 2-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 0-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Juventus SC(home) | 1-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Marcílio Dias win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Hercílio Luz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | Marcílio Dias 1-0 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 1 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 1-1 Marcílio Dias | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Marcílio Dias 0-0 Hercílio Luz | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Marcílio Dias 1-3 Hercílio Luz | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 2-0 Marcílio Dias | Catarinense - 1 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 0-2 Marcílio Dias | Copa Santa Catarina |
Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz on Jan 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Marcílio Dias score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Hercílio Luz score 2.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcílio Dias | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Hercílio Luz | 2.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz?
- The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Hercílio Luz.
- Where and when is Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz played?
- Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz is played on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.