Nação vs Joinville: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Arena Joinville, Joinville, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Nação the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Joinville. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nação vs Joinville?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Nação (1,548) and Joinville (1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nação have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Joinville have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 2-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jaraguá(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 10, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Nação win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Joinville win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | Nação 0-1 Joinville | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Joinville 0-0 Nação | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Nação 3-3 Joinville | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Nação 1-3 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Joinville 2-1 Nação | Copa Santa Catarina |
How many goals should we expect?
Nação score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Joinville score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nação | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Joinville | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nação vs Joinville?
- The Footlab model makes Nação the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Joinville.
- Where and when is Nação vs Joinville played?
- Nação vs Joinville is played on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Joinville, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.