Maribor vs Aluminij: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ljudski vrt, Maribor
The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Aluminij. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maribor vs Aluminij?
Maribor starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maribor have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Aluminij have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bravo(home) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Koper(home) | 2-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celje(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 4-2 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Maribor win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Aluminij win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Aluminij 0-0 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| May 23, 2026 | Maribor 3-0 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Aluminij 1-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Maribor 2-3 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Aluminij 2-3 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Maribor 2-0 Aluminij | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Maribor score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aluminij score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Aluminij | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maribor sit 1st in 1. SNL (9 points from 5 matches) and Aluminij sit 2nd (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Aluminij | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maribor vs Aluminij?
- The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Aluminij.
- Where and when is Maribor vs Aluminij played?
- Maribor vs Aluminij is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ljudski vrt, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.