Marines vs Gasogi United: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gasogi United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Gasogi United?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Marines (1,668) and Gasogi United (1,611).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Gasogi United have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 17, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 13, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 5, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 3-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Marines win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gasogi United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Marines 2-2 Gasogi United | National Soccer League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Gasogi United 0-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Marines 3-0 Gasogi United | National Soccer League |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Gasogi United 1-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Gasogi United 2-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Marines 0-1 Gasogi United | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Marines vs Gasogi United on May 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gasogi United score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Gasogi United | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 8th in National Soccer League (45 points from 34 matches) and Gasogi United sit 15th (35 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marines | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 45 |
| 15 | Gasogi United | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 44 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Gasogi United?
- The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gasogi United.
- Where and when is Marines vs Gasogi United played?
- Marines vs Gasogi United is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.