Merani Tbilisi vs Saburtalo II: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 25Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sport-kompleksi Shatili, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Saburtalo II the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Merani Tbilisi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merani Tbilisi vs Saburtalo II?
Saburtalo II starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,415 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merani Tbilisi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Saburtalo II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Guria(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Iveria Khashuri(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Telavi(home) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Merani Martvili II(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Merani Tbilisi win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Saburtalo II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Saburtalo II 1-0 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Merani Tbilisi 3-3 Saburtalo II | Liga 3 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Saburtalo II 1-1 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Saburtalo II vs Merani Tbilisi on May 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Saburtalo II score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Saburtalo II | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merani Tbilisi sit 7th in Liga 3 (29 points from 18 matches) and Saburtalo II sit 3rd (35 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Saburtalo II | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 35 |
| 7 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merani Tbilisi vs Saburtalo II?
- The Footlab model makes Saburtalo II the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Merani Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Merani Tbilisi vs Saburtalo II played?
- Merani Tbilisi vs Saburtalo II is played on October 23, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sport-kompleksi Shatili, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.