Merelbeke vs Thes Sport: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 23Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Thes Sport the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Thes Sport?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Merelbeke (1,777) and Thes Sport (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Thes Sport have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Diegem Sport(home) | 6-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar(away) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Merelbeke win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Thes Sport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Merelbeke 2-0 Thes Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Thes Sport 1-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Merelbeke 3-0 Thes Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Thes Sport 5-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
Last archived meeting: Merelbeke vs Thes Sport on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Thes Sport score 1.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Thes Sport | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merelbeke sit 14th in First Amateur Division (11 points from 12 matches) and Thes Sport sit 5th (22 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thes Sport | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 22 |
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Thes Sport?
- The Footlab model makes Thes Sport the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Thes Sport played?
- Merelbeke vs Thes Sport is played on February 28, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.