Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Avanhard, Uzhhorod
The Footlab model makes Metal Kharkiv the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Metal Kharkiv (1,634) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metal Kharkiv have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Penuel(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oleksandria(home) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Polissya II(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kulykiv(away) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Metal Kharkiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Yarud Mariupol' win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv 1-1 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-1 Metal Kharkiv | Persha Liga |
| Aug 18, 2021 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-3 Metal Kharkiv | Cup |
| Apr 30, 2021 | Metal Kharkiv 5-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Druha Liga - Group B |
| Oct 16, 2020 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-3 Metal Kharkiv | Druha Liga - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metal Kharkiv score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Kharkiv | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metal Kharkiv sit 7th in Persha Liga (6 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Metal Kharkiv | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes Metal Kharkiv the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Avanhard, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.