SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Zirka im. Stanislava Berezkina, Kropyvnytskyi
The Footlab model makes SK Poltava the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate SK Poltava (1,616) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,602).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SK Poltava have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mayak Sarny(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UCSA(home) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol'(away) | 3-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 3-0 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 SK Poltava win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Yarud Mariupol' win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-3 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-2 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | SK Poltava 3-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 16, 2023 | SK Poltava 0-2 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| May 13, 2023 | SK Poltava 0-4 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs SK Poltava on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SK Poltava score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Poltava | 0.9 | 1.6 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SK Poltava sit 2nd in Persha Liga (8 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SK Poltava | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes SK Poltava the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Zirka im. Stanislava Berezkina, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.