SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaMatchday 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Zirka im. Stanislava Berezkina, Kropyvnytskyi
The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for SK Poltava. The most likely score is 1-1. If Yarud Mariupol' wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,579 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate SK Poltava (1,723) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,754).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
SK Poltava
4-3-3- 8V. Odaryuk
- 17B. Kobzar
- 88O. Vivdych
- 11D. Kasimov
- 10V. Sad
- 22D. Prikhna
- 2M. Kononov
- 5V. Pidlepych
- 19M. Buzhyn
- 95I. Kotsyumaka
- 96D. Ermolov
Yarud Mariupol'
4-3-3- 6E. Gunichev
- 9S. Kyslenko
- 29A. Remenyak
- 10P. Orikhovskyi
- 8A. Kukharuk
- 96O. Synytsia
- 15O. Chornomorets
- 33V. Sydorenko
- 20O. Nikolyshyn
- 2R. Gagun
- 1V. Zhupanskyi
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 11:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SK Poltava have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Oleksandria(away) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Polissya II(away) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Prykarpattia(home) | 4-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 2-3 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Chernihiv(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(away) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inhulets(home) | 4-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UCSA(away) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 SK Poltava wins, 1 draw, 2 Yarud Mariupol' wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-3 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-2 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | SK Poltava 3-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 16, 2023 | SK Poltava 0-2 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 SK Poltava | Persha Liga |
| May 13, 2023 | SK Poltava 0-4 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs SK Poltava on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SK Poltava score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Poltava | 1.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 2.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SK Poltava sit 6th in Persha Liga (24 points from 15 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 2nd (28 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 28 |
| 6 | SK Poltava | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 14 | 24 |
A question about SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for SK Poltava.
- Where and when is SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- SK Poltava vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Zirka im. Stanislava Berezkina, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.