Miami FC vs Loudoun United: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium, Miami, Florida
The Footlab model makes Miami FC the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Loudoun United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Miami FC vs Loudoun United?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Miami FC (1,633) and Loudoun United (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Miami FC have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Loudoun United have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Charleston Battery(away) | 0-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Detroit City(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New Mexico United(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Indy Eleven(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Miami FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Loudoun United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Loudoun United 0-0 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Loudoun United 3-1 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| May 17, 2025 | Miami FC 2-1 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Loudoun United 4-1 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Miami FC 2-2 Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Loudoun United 1-2 Miami FC | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Loudoun United vs Miami FC on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Miami FC score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Loudoun United score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Loudoun United | 0.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Miami FC sit 8th in USL Championship (17 points from 13 matches) and Loudoun United sit 12th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Miami FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 39 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 20 |
| 12 | Loudoun United | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Miami FC vs Loudoun United?
- The Footlab model makes Miami FC the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Loudoun United.
- Where and when is Miami FC vs Loudoun United played?
- Miami FC vs Loudoun United is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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