Montalegre vs Maia Lidador: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, Montalegre
The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Maia Lidador. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montalegre vs Maia Lidador?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Montalegre (1,800) and Maia Lidador (1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montalegre have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Maia Lidador have 0, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Sandinenses(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Os Limianos(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Vila Real(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Brito(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Montalegre score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maia Lidador score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montalegre | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Maia Lidador | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montalegre sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 2 matches) and Maia Lidador sit 11th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montalegre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montalegre vs Maia Lidador?
- The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Maia Lidador.
- Where and when is Montalegre vs Maia Lidador played?
- Montalegre vs Maia Lidador is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.