Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, California
The Footlab model makes Las Vegas Lights the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Monterey Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights?
Las Vegas Lights starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,684 vs 1,578).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterey Bay have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Las Vegas Lights have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rhode Island(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oakland Roots(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New Mexico United(home) | 2-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brooklyn(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miami FC(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Monterey Bay win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Las Vegas Lights win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Monterey Bay 2-3 Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights 1-0 Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Monterey Bay 1-1 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Las Vegas Lights 2-0 Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Las Vegas Lights 0-0 Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Monterey Bay 3-1 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monterey Bay score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Las Vegas Lights score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Las Vegas Lights | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monterey Bay sit 12th in USL Championship (11 points from 13 matches) and Las Vegas Lights sit 10th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 40 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights?
- The Footlab model makes Las Vegas Lights the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Monterey Bay.
- Where and when is Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights played?
- Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Cardinale Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots