Montserrat vs Nicaragua: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeaguePlay-In FinalKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra, Espírito Santo
The Footlab AI model makes Montserrat the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Nicaragua. The most likely score is 1-1. If Montserrat wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montserrat vs Nicaragua?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Montserrat (1,420) and Nicaragua (1,477).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montserrat vs Nicaragua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montserrat
4-4-2- 17Ashley Frank Boatswain
- 9L. Taylor
- 7B. Barzey
- 8B. Comley
- 18A. Dyer
- 12D. Richmond
- 4N. Gordon
- 14J. Dorsett
- 3Lenni Rae Cirino
- 21Lucas Kirnon
- 1Trent Carter-Rodgers
Nicaragua
5-4-1- 13W. Talavera
- 16R. Cole
- 14K. Cole
- 3Ó. Acevedo
- 20J. Moncada
- 5J. Cano
- 4M. Fletes
- 6E. Gomez
- 19J. Pérez
- 21C. Reyes
- 1B. Mayorga
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montserrat have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Nicaragua have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Turks and Caicos Islands(home) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(home) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Turks and Caicos Islands(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Guyana(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Dominican Republic(home) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Costa Rica(home) | 0-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 1-6 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Dominican Republic(away) | 2-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Montserrat wins, 0 draws, 3 Nicaragua wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2024 | Nicaragua 4-1 Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Nicaragua 3-0 Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Montserrat 0-3 Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League |
Last archived meeting: Nicaragua vs Montserrat on Jun 6, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Montserrat score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nicaragua score 0.7 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montserrat | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Nicaragua | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Montserrat vs Nicaragua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montserrat vs Nicaragua?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montserrat the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Nicaragua.
- Where and when is Montserrat vs Nicaragua played?
- Montserrat vs Nicaragua is played on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.