Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,816) and Benfica Castelo Branco (1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eléctrico(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Samora Correir(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Peniche(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mortágua win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Benfica Castelo Branco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco 3-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Mortágua 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Mortágua 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 2-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Mortágua 1-2 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua on Jan 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and Benfica Castelo Branco sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.