Morton vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 31Kick-off on March 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Morton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stenhousemuir wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Stenhousemuir?
Stenhousemuir starts as the favourite with a 230-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,562).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morton vs Stenhousemuir
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morton
4-2-3-1- 7M. Garrity
- 21G. Gillespie
- 20C. Sandilands
- 27I. Wilson
- 19Kerr Robertson
- 17Sahil Bashir
- 2C. Ballantyne
- 4Christopher Cupps
- 6C. Okike
- 3J. Longridge
- 1Elyh Harrison
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 36L. Lloyd
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 14K. Bilham
- 5S. Young
- 19S. Bright
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Morton wins, 0 draws, 2 Stenhousemuir wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 2-0 Morton | Championship |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 4-0 Morton | FA Cup |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Morton 3-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Jun 28, 2022 | Stenhousemuir 0-1 Morton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2018 | Morton 2-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Stenhousemuir vs Morton on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 10th in Championship (4 points from 10 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Morton vs Stenhousemuir?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Morton vs Stenhousemuir is played on March 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.