Morton vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 31Kick-off on March 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Morton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Stenhousemuir?
Stenhousemuir starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,813 vs 1,623).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Morton win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Stenhousemuir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 2-0 Morton | Championship |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 4-0 Morton | FA Cup |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Morton 3-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Jun 28, 2022 | Stenhousemuir 0-1 Morton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2018 | Morton 2-0 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Stenhousemuir vs Morton on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 9th in Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Morton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Morton vs Stenhousemuir is played on March 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.