Mosconia vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 28Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, Grado, Asturias
The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Lealtad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosconia vs Lealtad?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Mosconia (1,777) and Lealtad (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosconia have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lealtad have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Navarro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mosconia win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Lealtad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Mosconia 0-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Lealtad 1-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Lealtad 1-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Mosconia 1-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 4, 2021 | Lealtad 1-1 Mosconia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 1, 2020 | Mosconia 2-2 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosconia score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosconia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 27 | 56 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosconia vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Lealtad.
- Where and when is Mosconia vs Lealtad played?
- Mosconia vs Lealtad is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.