San Martín vs Avilés Stadium: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 28Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Florán, San Martín del Rey Aurelio
The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Avilés Stadium. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín vs Avilés Stadium?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate San Martín (1,726) and Avilés Stadium (1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Avilés Stadium have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Entregu(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Titánico(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 San Martín win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Avilés Stadium win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Avilés Stadium 0-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | San Martín 2-0 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | San Martín 0-1 Avilés Stadium | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Avilés Stadium 1-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Avilés Stadium vs San Martín on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Avilés Stadium score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Avilés Stadium | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martín sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (51 points from 34 matches) and Avilés Stadium sit 13th (33 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | San Martín | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 51 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 34 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 21 | 40 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín vs Avilés Stadium?
- The Footlab model makes San Martín the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Avilés Stadium.
- Where and when is San Martín vs Avilés Stadium played?
- San Martín vs Avilés Stadium is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Florán, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.