Muğlaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 28Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Muğla Atatürk Stadyumu, Muğla
The Footlab model makes Muğlaspor the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Muğlaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Muğlaspor (1,808) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Muğlaspor have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bodrum FK(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sarıyer(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 10, 2026 | Elazığspor(home) | 0-0 | 2. Lig |
| May 4, 2026 | Şanlıurfaspor(home) | 1-1 | 2. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
How many goals should we expect?
Muğlaspor score 0.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muğlaspor | 0.8 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Muğlaspor sit 18th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Muğlaspor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Muğlaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Muğlaspor the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Muğlaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Muğlaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Muğla Atatürk Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.