Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras: prediction and stats
Mineiro - 3Regular Season - 3Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Soares de Azevedo, Muriaé, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Nacional AC MG the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Nova Lavras. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras?
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional AC MG have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nova Lavras have 0, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2025 | Valeriodoce(away) | 2-2 | Mineiro - 2 |
| Jun 14, 2025 | North Esporte(home) | 0-3 | Mineiro - 2 |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Betim(away) | 0-0 | Mineiro - 2 |
| May 31, 2025 | Guarani MG(home) | 2-1 | Mineiro - 2 |
| May 28, 2025 | Democrata SL(away) | 0-1 | Mineiro - 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional AC MG the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Nova Lavras.
- Where and when is Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras played?
- Nacional AC MG vs Nova Lavras is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Soares de Azevedo, in the Mineiro - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.