Næsby vs Holstebro: prediction and stats
3. DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)ALPI Arena Næsby, Odense
The Footlab model makes Næsby the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Holstebro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Næsby vs Holstebro?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Næsby (1,758) and Holstebro (1,713).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Næsby have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Holstebro have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ishøj(away) | 5-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brønshøj(home) | 0-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vanløse(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kolding B(away) | 3-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sundby(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Helsingor(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ringsted(away) | 4-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Holbæk B&I(home) | 2-2 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aalborg(home) | 1-3 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hørsholm-Usserød(away) | 3-2 | 3. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Næsby win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Holstebro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | Holstebro 0-2 Næsby | 3. Division |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Næsby 0-2 Holstebro | 3. Division |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Holstebro 1-0 Næsby | 3. Division |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Næsby 1-2 Holstebro | 3. Division |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Holstebro 1-2 Næsby | 3. Division |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Næsby 2-0 Holstebro | 3. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Næsby score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Holstebro score 2.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Næsby | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Holstebro | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Næsby sit 3rd in 3. Division (7 points from 4 matches) and Holstebro sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Holstebro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Næsby | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Næsby vs Holstebro?
- The Footlab model makes Næsby the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Holstebro.
- Where and when is Næsby vs Holstebro played?
- Næsby vs Holstebro is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at ALPI Arena Næsby, in the 3. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.