Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus: prediction and stats
3. DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Holbæk Sportsby, Holbæk
The Footlab model makes Holbæk B&I the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for ASA Aarhus. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus?
Holbæk B&I starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,632).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holbæk B&I have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; ASA Aarhus have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brønshøj(away) | 4-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sundby(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Holstebro(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AB Copenhagen(home) | 1-2 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Frem(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Frem(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Randers FC(home) | 0-4 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vanløse(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ishøj(away) | 1-0 | 3. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Viby(away) | 0-0 | DBU Pokalen |
How many goals should we expect?
Holbæk B&I score 2.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; ASA Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holbæk B&I | 2.6 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| ASA Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Holbæk B&I sit 1st in 3. Division (10 points from 4 matches) and ASA Aarhus sit 5th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | ASA Aarhus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus?
- The Footlab model makes Holbæk B&I the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for ASA Aarhus.
- Where and when is Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus played?
- Holbæk B&I vs ASA Aarhus is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Holbæk Sportsby, in the 3. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.