Naestved vs Middelfart: prediction and stats
2. DivisionRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)MTM Service Park, Næstved
The Footlab model makes Naestved the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Middelfart. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naestved vs Middelfart?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Naestved (1,723) and Middelfart (1,678).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naestved have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Middelfart have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VSK Århus(home) | 0-2 | 2. Division |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nykobing FC(away) | 1-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Brabrand(away) | 1-0 | 2. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HIK(home) | 1-1 | 2. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hvidovre(home) | 1-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nykobing FC(home) | 2-3 | 2. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Roskilde(away) | 1-1 | 2. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Brabrand(home) | 4-0 | 2. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bredballe(away) | 2-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Thisted FC(home) | 4-1 | 2. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Naestved win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Middelfart win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Middelfart 3-0 Naestved | 2. Division |
| May 11, 2025 | Naestved 0-1 Middelfart | 2. Division |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Middelfart 0-1 Naestved | 2. Division |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Naestved 0-2 Middelfart | 2. Division |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Middelfart 1-2 Naestved | 2. Division |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Naestved 4-0 Middelfart | 2. Division |
Last archived meeting: Middelfart vs Naestved on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Naestved score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Middelfart score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naestved | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Middelfart | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naestved sit 8th in 2. Division (5 points from 4 matches) and Middelfart sit 3rd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middelfart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Naestved | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naestved vs Middelfart?
- The Footlab model makes Naestved the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Middelfart.
- Where and when is Naestved vs Middelfart played?
- Naestved vs Middelfart is played on September 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at MTM Service Park, in the 2. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.