Naftagas vs Napredak: prediction and stats
Prva LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion FK Naftagas, Elemir
The Footlab model makes Naftagas the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Napredak. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naftagas vs Napredak?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Naftagas (1,600) and Napredak (1,524).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naftagas have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Napredak have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Borac Cacak(away) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dubočica(home) | 2-3 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | OFK Vršac(away) | 0-1 | Prva Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Loznica(away) | 0-0 | Prva Liga |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Macva(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | TSC Backa Topola(home) | 1-2 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Teleoptik(away) | 1-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Metalac GM(home) | 2-1 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | OFK Bor 1919(away) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Grafičar(home) | 1-0 | Prva Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Naftagas score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Napredak score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naftagas | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Napredak | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naftagas sit 16th in Prva Liga (1 points from 4 matches) and Napredak sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Napredak | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Naftagas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naftagas vs Napredak?
- The Footlab model makes Naftagas the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Napredak.
- Where and when is Naftagas vs Napredak played?
- Naftagas vs Napredak is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion FK Naftagas, in the Prva Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.