Where and when is Naples vs NY Cosmos played?

Naples vs NY Cosmos is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex, in the USL League One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Naples vs NY Cosmos: prediction and stats

USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Paradise Coast Sports Complex, Naples, Florida

Naples

NY Cosmos

The Footlab model makes Naples the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for NY Cosmos. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Naples vs NY Cosmos?

A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Naples (1,620) and NY Cosmos (1,593).

Naples win57 %

Draw23 %

NY Cosmos win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naples have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; NY Cosmos have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Naples
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Alta(away)	2-1	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Westchester SC(away)	2-3	USL League One
Aug 5, 2026	Alta(home)	2-1	USL League One
Jul 25, 2026	Forward Madison(away)	1-3	USL League One
Jul 11, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(away)	0-2	USL League One Cup

NY Cosmos
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Chattanooga Red Wolves(away)	3-3	USL League One
Aug 20, 2026	Corpus Christi(away)	2-0	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Alta(home)	1-0	USL League One
Aug 5, 2026	Richmond Kickers(away)	0-2	USL League One
Jul 25, 2026	Boise(home)	1-2	USL League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Naples win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 NY Cosmos win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 8, 2026	NY Cosmos 1-0 Naples	USL League One

Last archived meeting: NY Cosmos vs Naples on Jul 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Naples score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; NY Cosmos score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Naples	1.1	2.1	1	9/15	8/15
NY Cosmos	0.9	1.9	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Naples sit 11th in USL League One (23 points from 21 matches) and NY Cosmos sit 17th (18 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Naples	21	7	2	12	25	35	23
17	NY Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Naples vs NY Cosmos?: The Footlab model makes Naples the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for NY Cosmos.
Where and when is Naples vs NY Cosmos played?: Naples vs NY Cosmos is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex, in the USL League One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.