Nardò vs Gravina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Heffort Sport Village, Parabita
The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gravina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nardò vs Gravina?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Nardò (1,770) and Gravina (1,762).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nardò have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Gravina have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 6-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nardò win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Gravina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Gravina 2-2 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Nardò 1-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Gravina 2-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Nardò 5-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Nardò 1-0 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Gravina 1-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Nardò score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gravina score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nardò | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Gravina | 1.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nardò sit 5th in Serie D - Girone H (55 points from 34 matches) and Gravina sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nardò | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nardò vs Gravina?
- The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gravina.
- Where and when is Nardò vs Gravina played?
- Nardò vs Gravina is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Heffort Sport Village, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.