Naval 1893 vs FC Alverca II: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal José Bento Pessoa, Figueira da Foz
The Footlab model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for FC Alverca II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naval 1893 vs FC Alverca II?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Naval 1893 (1,810) and FC Alverca II (1,858).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naval 1893 have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; FC Alverca II have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Naval 1893 score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval 1893 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| FC Alverca II | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naval 1893 sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (3 points from 2 matches) and FC Alverca II sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Naval 1893 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Alverca II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naval 1893 vs FC Alverca II?
- The Footlab model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for FC Alverca II.
- Where and when is Naval 1893 vs FC Alverca II played?
- Naval 1893 vs FC Alverca II is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal José Bento Pessoa, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.