Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Naval Reinosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarnizo wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,005 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Naval Reinosa (1,658) and Guarnizo (1,735).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naval Reinosa
Not enough data to predict the Naval Reinosa lineup.
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 05:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Naval Reinosa have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Guarnizo have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Castro(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Selaya(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Revilla(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Solares(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Naval Reinosa score 1.1 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 9; Guarnizo score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval Reinosa | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
| Guarnizo | 0.9 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naval Reinosa sit 18th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 9 matches) and Guarnizo sit 12th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Guarnizo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 8 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 5 |
A question about Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Naval Reinosa.
- Where and when is Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo played?
- Naval Reinosa vs Guarnizo is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.