Guarnizo vs Barquereño: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Pilar, Guarnizo
The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Barquereño. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarnizo vs Barquereño?
Guarnizo starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (1,808 vs 1,629).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarnizo vs Barquereño
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Barquereño
Not enough data to predict the Barquereño lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarnizo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Barquereño have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Torina(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Solares(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Torina(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Guarnizo wins, 0 draws, 1 Barquereño win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño 0-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Guarnizo 2-1 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | Barquereño 5-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jun 13, 2021 | Barquereño 1-4 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2021 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Barquereño vs Guarnizo on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Barquereño score 0.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Barquereño | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarnizo sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 7 matches) and Barquereño sit 16th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Guarnizo vs Barquereño?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarnizo vs Barquereño?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Barquereño.
- Where and when is Guarnizo vs Barquereño played?
- Guarnizo vs Barquereño is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Pilar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.