Guarnizo vs Barquereño: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Pilar, Guarnizo
The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Barquereño. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarnizo vs Barquereño?
Guarnizo starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,636).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarnizo have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Barquereño have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torina(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colindres(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Guarnizo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Barquereño win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño 0-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Guarnizo 2-1 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | Barquereño 5-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jun 13, 2021 | Barquereño 1-4 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2021 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Barquereño vs Guarnizo on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Barquereño score 1.2 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Barquereño | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarnizo sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (66 points from 34 matches) and Barquereño sit 14th (30 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guarnizo | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 66 |
| 14 | Barquereño | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 64 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarnizo vs Barquereño?
- The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Barquereño.
- Where and when is Guarnizo vs Barquereño played?
- Guarnizo vs Barquereño is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Pilar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.